Murphy Kieran, Packer Claire, Stevens Andrew, Simpson Sue
National Horizon Scanning Centre, Department of Public Health and Epidemiology, The University of Birmingham, UK.
Int J Technol Assess Health Care. 2007 Summer;23(3):324-30. doi: 10.1017/s0266462307070493.
The aim of this study was to define an effective early warning system, to identify and rank the characteristics of an effective early warning system for emerging health technologies, and to evaluate current early warning systems against these characteristics.
An iterative Delphi-type process with the thirteen members of the International Information Network on New and Changing Health Technologies (EuroScan). We synthesized key characteristics that network members had graded. Members were then asked whether these characteristics were present or fulfilled in their system.
The definition of an effective early warning system developed was the following: a system that identifies innovations in the field of health technology likely to have a significant impact; and disseminates information relevant to the needs of the customer which is timely, so as to enable appropriate decision making (such as resource allocation), facilitate appropriate adoption, and identify further research requirements. Five primary and eleven secondary components of effective early warning systems were identified. The five primary characteristics concerned relevance, independence, resourcing, a clear pathway for the outputs to reach decision makers, and defined customers. Although the primary characteristics were present or fulfilled to some extent in the majority of evaluated early warning systems, there was considerable variability in the presence of the secondary characteristics in the evaluated systems.
Our study provides a definition for an effective early warning system and a shared understanding of the important characteristics and components of such systems. This work should provide guidance to those setting up new early warning systems as well as for those managing and reviewing current systems.
本研究旨在定义一个有效的早期预警系统，识别并排列新兴卫生技术有效早期预警系统的特征，并对照这些特征评估当前的早期预警系统。
采用迭代的德尔菲法，与国际新的和不断变化的卫生技术信息网络（EuroScan）的13名成员开展研究。我们综合了网络成员评分的关键特征。随后询问成员这些特征在其系统中是否存在或得到满足。
所制定的有效早期预警系统的定义如下：一个能够识别卫生技术领域中可能产生重大影响的创新，并及时传播与客户需求相关的信息，以便做出适当决策（如资源分配）、促进适当采用并确定进一步研究需求的系统。确定了有效早期预警系统的五个主要组成部分和十一个次要组成部分。五个主要特征涉及相关性、独立性、资源配置、产出传达给决策者的明确途径以及明确的客户群体。虽然大多数评估的早期预警系统在某种程度上具备或满足了主要特征，但在评估系统中次要特征的存在情况存在相当大的差异。
我们的研究为有效早期预警系统提供了定义，并对这类系统的重要特征和组成部分达成了共识。这项工作应为那些建立新的早期预警系统以及管理和审查现有系统的人员提供指导。
