Willis Katherine J, Kleczkowski Adam, New Mark, Whittaker Robert J
Biodiversity Research Group, Oxford University Centre for the Environment, Oxford, UK.
Ecol Lett. 2007 Aug;10(8):673-9. doi: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2007.01056.x.
Models examining the present-day relationship between macro-scale patterns in terrestrial species richness and variables of water and energy demonstrate that a combined water-energy model is a good predictor of richness in mid-to-high latitude regions. However, the power of the individual water and energy variables to explain this richness through time has never been explored. Here, we assess how well energy and water can predict long-term variations in plant richness using a 320,000-year fossil pollen data set from Hungary. Results demonstrate that a combined water-energy model best explains the variation in plant diversity through time. However, this long temporal record also demonstrates that amplitude of energy variation appears to be a strong determinant of richness. Decreased richness correlates with increased climate variability and certain species appear to be more susceptible according to their ecological traits. These findings have important implications for predicting richness at times of increasing climate variability.
研究陆地物种丰富度的宏观尺度模式与水和能量变量之间当今关系的模型表明，水 - 能量综合模型是中高纬度地区物种丰富度的良好预测指标。然而，单个水和能量变量随时间解释这种丰富度的能力从未被探究过。在此，我们利用来自匈牙利的一个32万年的化石花粉数据集，评估能量和水对植物丰富度长期变化的预测能力。结果表明，水 - 能量综合模型最能解释植物多样性随时间的变化。然而，这一漫长的时间记录也表明，能量变化的幅度似乎是丰富度的一个重要决定因素。丰富度降低与气候变率增加相关，并且某些物种根据其生态特征似乎更易受影响。这些发现对于预测气候变率增加时期的丰富度具有重要意义。
