Kemper P, Spillman B C, Murtaugh C M
Division of Long Term Care Studies, AHCPR, Rockville, MD 20857.
Inquiry. 1991 Winter;28(4):333-44.
In this paper data from the National Mortality Followback Survey and the National Nursing Home Survey are used to estimate the lifetime cost of nursing home care. The expected discounted cost for persons turning 65 in 1990 is $27,600. However, variation around this average is high. The 9% of persons expected to use at least 5 years of nursing home care will account for 64% of aggregate cost for the cohort; the 68% using less than 3 months of care will account for only about 1% of cost. The percentage of costs covered under alternative financing strategies also varies widely. An entitlement covering the first 3 months of care subject to 30% coinsurance would cover 5% of aggregate cost; an entitlement with a 2-year deductible and the same coinsurance would cover 41% of cost.
在本文中，来自国家死亡率随访调查和国家养老院调查的数据被用于估算养老院护理的终身成本。1990年年满65岁者的预期贴现成本为27,600美元。然而，围绕这个平均值的差异很大。预计使用至少5年养老院护理的9%的人将占该队列总成本的64%；使用护理时间少于3个月的68%的人仅占成本的约1%。不同融资策略所涵盖的成本百分比也有很大差异。一项涵盖前3个月护理且需30%共保的福利将涵盖总成本的5%；一项有2年免赔额且共保相同的福利将涵盖41%的成本。
