Houston David J
Department of Political Science, 1001 McClung Tower, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996-0410, USA.
J Safety Res. 2007;38(3):329-36. doi: 10.1016/j.jsr.2007.05.002. Epub 2007 May 30.
The trend in state mandatory motorcycle helmet laws is away from universal coverage to partial coverage statutes that require only young riders to wear a helmet. Among partial coverage states substantial variation exists in this age requirement. How effective are motorcycle helmet laws at reducing young motorcyclist fatalities?
The dependent variable is the number of motorcyclist fatalities 15-20 years of age. Fixed effects negative binomial regression models are estimated using panel data for all 50 states and Washington DC, for the period 1975-2004.
Universal helmet laws are associated with fatality rates that are 31% lower among motorcyclists 15-20 years of age. In contrast, partial coverage laws targeting young motorcyclists are statistically unrelated to a reduction in the fatality rates of this age group.
The long-term consequence of the move away from universal helmet laws will be an increased level of risk faced by young motorcyclists. In many states, mandatory motorcycle helmet laws are not protecting even young riders.
各州强制性摩托车头盔法律的趋势是从全面覆盖转向部分覆盖法规,即仅要求年轻骑手佩戴头盔。在部分覆盖的州中,这一年龄要求存在很大差异。摩托车头盔法律在减少年轻摩托车手死亡方面的效果如何?
因变量是15至20岁摩托车手的死亡人数。使用1975年至2004年期间美国50个州和华盛顿特区的面板数据估计固定效应负二项回归模型。
全面头盔法律与15至20岁摩托车手的死亡率降低31%相关。相比之下,针对年轻摩托车手的部分覆盖法律在统计学上与该年龄组死亡率的降低无关。
摒弃全面头盔法律的长期后果将是年轻摩托车手面临的风险水平增加。在许多州,强制性摩托车头盔法律甚至没有保护年轻骑手。