Department of Traffic Management, Taiwan Police College, Taipei 11696, Taiwan.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Jul 9;19(14):8411. doi: 10.3390/ijerph19148411.
In order to better understand the factors affecting the likelihood of motorcyclists' fatal injuries, motorcycle-involved crashes were investigated based on the involvement of the following vehicles: single motorcycle (SM), multiple motorcycles (MM) and motorcycle versus vehicle (MV) crashes.
Binary logit and mixed logit models that consider the heterogeneity of parameters were applied to identify the critical factors that increase the likelihood of motorcyclist fatality.
Mixed logit models were found to have better fitting performances. Factors that increase the likelihood of motorcyclist fatality include lanes separated by traffic islands, male motorcyclists, and riding with BAC values of less than the legally limited value. Collisions with trees or utility poles lead to the highest likelihood of fatality in SM crashes. The effects of curved roads, same-direction swipe crashes, youth, and unlicensed motorcyclists are only significant in the likelihood of fatality in SM crashes.
Motorcyclists tend to be killed if they collide with large engine-size motorcycles and vehicles, unlicensed motorcyclists, or drivers with speeding related or right-of-way violations with positive BAC values. Driving or riding should be prohibited for any amount of alcohol or for anyone with a positive BAC value. Law enforcement should focus on unlicensed, speeding motorcyclists and drivers, and those who violate the right of way or perform improper turns. Roadside objects and facilities should be checked for appropriate placement and be equipped with reflective devices or injury protection facilities.
为了更好地理解影响摩托车手致命伤害可能性的因素，根据涉及的以下车辆对涉及摩托车的事故进行了调查：单辆摩托车（SM）、多辆摩托车（MM）和摩托车与车辆（MV）碰撞。
应用考虑参数异质性的二元对数和混合对数模型，确定增加摩托车手死亡可能性的关键因素。
发现混合对数模型具有更好的拟合性能。增加摩托车手死亡可能性的因素包括由交通岛隔开的车道、男性摩托车手、以及酒后驾车且血液酒精浓度低于法定限制值。与树木或电线杆碰撞导致 SM 碰撞中死亡的可能性最高。弯道、同方向扫掠碰撞、年轻人和无照摩托车手的影响仅在 SM 碰撞中死亡的可能性方面具有显著意义。
如果摩托车手与大排量摩托车和车辆、无照摩托车手或酒后驾车且血液酒精浓度值为正的司机发生碰撞，他们往往会死亡。任何酒精含量或任何血液酒精浓度值为正的人都应禁止驾驶或骑行。执法部门应重点关注无照、超速的摩托车手和司机，以及那些违反优先通行权或不当转弯的司机。应检查路边物体和设施的适当位置，并配备反光装置或受伤保护设施。
