Backcalculation of HIV infection rates in Malaysia.

It has been almost two decades ago since the first AIDS case was reported in Malaysia. It has also been approximately eight years ago when the method of backcalculation was used to estimate the past HIV infection rate from the AIDS incidence data and an estimate of the incubation period distribution. This method is used because it makes use of the Malaysian AIDS incidence which is fairly reliable and reflects the trend of the epidemic as compared to the HIV infection rate recorded. The latest results generated show a slowdown in the increase of the number of estimated infected HIV+ cases in the late 1990s and this trend is supported by a slowdown in the increase of the number of AIDS cases recorded.