Measuring the shortage of medical practitioners in rural and urban areas in developing countries: a simple framework and simulation exercises with data from India.

This paper suggests a simple framework to estimate the shortage of medical practitioners in rural and urban areas in developing countries. Shortages are defined with respect to four main considerations. The overall numbers and also the different categories of practitioners in the rural and urban areas, the relatively greater difficulties of access in the rural areas (which reduce the number of accessible practitioners) and the greater health hazards in those areas (which lead to greater need for medical treatment). The quantitative effect of these factors is examined by undertaking simulation exercises with data for the Ujjain district in Madhya Pradesh state, India and also data for that state. The simulations turned up the following results. The un-weighted total number of practitioners, per head of population, is relatively greater in the rural areas; this is because of the relatively large numbers of the unqualified doctors in those areas. On the other hand, a 'quality adjusted' total, with lower weights for the unqualified doctors, found little overall difference between the rural and urban areas. Third, allowance for rural-urban differences in the difficulties of access showed that the number of accessible practitioners is much lower in the rural areas. Fourth, rural-urban differences in the incidence of health hazards and estimates of the need for medical treatment also showed a marked shortage of practitioners in the rural areas. The main implication of the results is that developmental efforts in the rural areas, including improvements in transport facilities and reduction of health hazards, would help to greatly reduce the shortage of practitioners in those areas. Training programmes to improve the quality of practitioners in the rural areas are also required.