Center for Health Decision Science, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America.
PLoS Med. 2010 Apr 20;7(4):e1000264. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1000264.
Approximately one-quarter of all pregnancy- and delivery-related maternal deaths worldwide occur in India. Taking into account the costs, feasibility, and operational complexity of alternative interventions, we estimate the clinical and population-level benefits associated with strategies to improve the safety of pregnancy and childbirth in India.
Country- and region-specific data were synthesized using a computer-based model that simulates the natural history of pregnancy (both planned and unintended) and pregnancy- and childbirth-associated complications in individual women; and considers delivery location, attendant, and facility level. Model outcomes included clinical events, population measures, costs, and cost-effectiveness ratios. Separate models were adapted to urban and rural India using survey-based data (e.g., unmet need for birth spacing/limiting, facility births, skilled birth attendants). Model validation compared projected maternal indicators with empiric data. Strategies consisted of improving coverage of effective interventions that could be provided individually or packaged as integrated services, could reduce the incidence of a complication or its case fatality rate, and could include improved logistics such as reliable transport to an appropriate referral facility as well as recognition of referral need and quality of care. Increasing family planning was the most effective individual intervention to reduce pregnancy-related mortality. If over the next 5 y the unmet need for spacing and limiting births was met, more than 150,000 maternal deaths would be prevented; more than US$1 billion saved; and at least one of every two abortion-related deaths averted. Still, reductions in maternal mortality reached a threshold ( approximately 23%-35%) without including strategies that ensured reliable access to intrapartum and emergency obstetrical care (EmOC). An integrated and stepwise approach was identified that would ultimately prevent four of five maternal deaths; this approach coupled stepwise improvements in family planning and safe abortion with consecutively implemented strategies that incrementally increased skilled attendants, improved antenatal/postpartum care, shifted births away from home, and improved recognition of referral need, transport, and availability/quality of EmOC. The strategies in this approach ranged from being cost-saving to having incremental cost-effectiveness ratios less than US$500 per year of life saved (YLS), well below India's per capita gross domestic product (GDP), a common benchmark for cost-effectiveness.
Early intensive efforts to improve family planning and control of fertility choices and to provide safe abortion, accompanied by a paced systematic and stepwise effort to scale up capacity for integrated maternal health services over several years, is as cost-effective as childhood immunization or treatment of malaria, tuberculosis, or HIV. In just 5 y, more than 150,000 maternal deaths would be averted through increasing contraception rates to meet women's needs for spacing and limiting births; nearly US$1.5 billion would be saved by coupling safe abortion to aggressive family planning efforts; and with stepwise investments to improve access to pregnancy-related health services and to high-quality facility-based intrapartum care, more than 75% of maternal deaths could be prevented. If accomplished over the next decade, the lives of more than one million women would be saved.
全球约四分之一的与妊娠和分娩相关的孕产妇死亡发生在印度。考虑到替代干预措施的成本、可行性和操作复杂性,我们估计了改善印度妊娠和分娩安全的策略相关的临床和人群效益。
使用基于计算机的模型综合了国家和地区特定数据,该模型模拟了妊娠(包括计划内和意外妊娠)的自然史以及个体妇女的妊娠和分娩相关并发症;并考虑了分娩地点、陪护人员和设施级别。模型结果包括临床事件、人群指标、成本和成本效益比。针对印度城乡地区,我们分别采用基于调查的数据(例如,生育间隔/限制的未满足需求、机构分娩、熟练的接生员)对模型进行了调整。模型验证将预测的产妇指标与经验数据进行了比较。策略包括改善有效干预措施的覆盖范围,这些干预措施可以单独提供或打包成综合服务,可以降低并发症的发生率或其病死率,并且可以包括改善物流,如可靠地转至适当的转诊机构以及识别转诊需求和护理质量。增加计划生育是减少与妊娠相关的死亡率的最有效个体干预措施。如果在未来 5 年内满足生育间隔和限制生育的未满足需求,将预防超过 15 万例孕产妇死亡;节省超过 10 亿美元;并且至少避免了每两例与堕胎相关的死亡中的一例。尽管如此,如果不包括确保可靠获得产时和紧急产科护理(EmOC)的策略,孕产妇死亡率的下降仍将达到一个阈值(约 23%-35%)。确定了一种综合和逐步的方法,最终将预防五分之四的孕产妇死亡;该方法将逐步改善计划生育和安全堕胎与连续实施的策略相结合,这些策略逐步增加熟练的接生员、改善产前/产后护理、将分娩转移到家庭以外,并改善转诊需求、运输和 EmOC 的可用性/质量的识别。该方法中的策略从节省成本到每年每挽救一个生命(YLS)的增量成本效益比低于 500 美元(低于印度人均国内生产总值(GDP),这是一个常见的成本效益基准)不等。
早期集中精力改善计划生育和控制生育选择,并提供安全堕胎,同时在数年内有节奏地逐步扩大综合孕产妇保健服务的能力,其成本效益与儿童免疫接种或疟疾、结核病或艾滋病毒的治疗相当。仅在 5 年内,通过提高避孕率以满足妇女对生育间隔和限制生育的需求,就可以避免超过 15 万例孕产妇死亡;通过将安全堕胎与积极的计划生育措施相结合,可以节省近 15 亿美元;通过逐步投资改善与妊娠相关的卫生服务和高质量的机构内产时护理的获得,可预防超过 75%的孕产妇死亡。如果在未来十年内完成,将挽救超过 100 万妇女的生命。