Davies Alisha Ruth, Smeeth Liam, Grundy Emily Marjatta Dorothea
Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Centre for Population Studies, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 49-51 Bedford Square, London WC1B 3DP, UK.
Eur Heart J. 2007 Sep;28(17):2142-7. doi: 10.1093/eurheartj/ehm272. Epub 2007 Jul 18.
To assess how trends in the incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD) and mortality rates among people with CHD have affected the prevalence of CHD in the UK.
A time trend analysis using computerized general practice clinical records of people aged 35 years and over was performed. From 1996 to 2005, age-standardized incidence of CHD decreased by 2.2% in men and 2.3% in women per year (average percentage change). Age-standardized all-cause mortality among those with CHD decreased by 4.5% in men and 3.4% in women per year (average percentage change). Age-standardized prevalence increased by 1.3% in men and 1.7% in women per year (average percentage change). Although the decline in incidence had some impact on limiting the increase in prevalence, its effect was offset by the increase in prevalence occurring as a result of improved survival among people with CHD.
The results suggest that increasing prevalence is largely due to decreasing mortality among people with CHD. Further increases in prevalence are likely even if the incidence of CHD continues to fall.
评估冠心病（CHD）发病率趋势以及冠心病患者的死亡率如何影响英国冠心病的患病率。
利用35岁及以上人群的计算机化全科医疗临床记录进行时间趋势分析。1996年至2005年期间，冠心病的年龄标准化发病率男性每年下降2.2%，女性每年下降2.3%（平均百分比变化）。冠心病患者的年龄标准化全因死亡率男性每年下降4.5%，女性每年下降3.4%（平均百分比变化）。年龄标准化患病率男性每年上升1.3%，女性每年上升1.7%（平均百分比变化）。尽管发病率下降对限制患病率上升有一定影响，但其影响被冠心病患者生存率提高导致的患病率上升所抵消。
结果表明患病率上升主要归因于冠心病患者死亡率下降。即便冠心病发病率持续下降，患病率仍可能进一步上升。
