Chowell Gerardo, Ammon Catherine E, Hengartner Nicolas W, Hyman James M
Center for Nonlinear Studies (MS B284), Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA.
Math Biosci Eng. 2007 Jul;4(3):457-70. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2007.4.457.
At the outset of an influenza pandemic, early estimates of the number of secondary cases generated by a primary influenza case (reproduction number, R) and its associated uncertainty can help determine the intensity of interventions necessary for control. Using a compartmental model and hospital notification data of the first two waves of the Spanish flu pandemic in Geneva, Switzerland in 1918, we estimate the reproduction number from the early phase of the pandemic waves. For the spring and fall pandemic waves, we estimate reproduction numbers of 1:57 (95% CI: 1:45, 1:70) and 3:10 (2:81, 3:39), respectively, from the initial epidemic phase comprising the first 10 epidemic days of the corresponding wave. Estimates of the variance of our point estimates of R were computed via a parametric bootstrap. We compare these estimates with others obtained using different observation windows to provide insight into how early into an epidemic the reproduction number can be estimated.
在流感大流行初期，对首例流感病例产生的二代病例数（繁殖数，R）及其相关不确定性进行早期估计，有助于确定控制疫情所需干预措施的强度。利用一个 compartments 模型和 1918 年瑞士日内瓦西班牙流感大流行前两波的医院通报数据，我们从大流行波的早期阶段估计繁殖数。对于春季和秋季大流行波，我们分别从相应波的前 10 个流行日组成的初始流行阶段估计繁殖数为 1.57（95%可信区间：1.45，1.70）和 3.10（2.81，3.39）。我们通过参数自助法计算了 R 的点估计值的方差估计。我们将这些估计值与使用不同观察窗口获得的其他估计值进行比较，以深入了解在疫情多早的时候可以估计繁殖数。
