Chu Chaeshin, Lee Junehawk, Choi Dong Hoon, Youn Seung-Ki, Lee Jong-Koo
Division of Epidemic Intelligence Service, Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Osong, Korea.
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2011 Dec;2(3):210-5. doi: 10.1016/j.phrp.2011.11.048.
Our aim was to evaluate Korea's Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Plan.
We conducted a sensitivity analysis on the expected number of outpatients and hospital bed occupancy, with 1,000,000 parameter combinations, in a situation of pandemic influenza, using the mathematical simulation program InfluSim.
Given the available resources in Korea, antiviral treatment and social distancing must be combined to reduce the number of outpatients and hospitalizations sufficiently; any single intervention is not enough. The antiviral stockpile of 4-6% is sufficient for the expected eligible number of cases to be treated. However, the eligible number assumed (30% for severe cases and 26% for extremely severe cases) is very low compared to the corresponding number in European countries, where up to 90% of the population are assumed to be eligible for antiviral treatment.
A combination of antiviral treatment and social distancing can mitigate a pandemic, but will only bring it under control for the most optimistic parameter combinations.
我们的目的是评估韩国的大流行性流感防范计划。
我们使用数学模拟程序InfluSim，在大流行性流感的情况下，对门诊患者预期数量和医院床位占用情况进行了敏感性分析，参数组合达100万个。
鉴于韩国现有的资源，必须将抗病毒治疗与社会隔离相结合，以充分减少门诊患者数量和住院人数；任何单一干预措施都不够。4%至6%的抗病毒药物储备足以治疗预期的符合条件的病例数。然而，与欧洲国家的相应数字相比，假设的符合条件的人数（重症病例为30%，极重症病例为26%）非常低，在欧洲国家，假设高达90%的人口有资格接受抗病毒治疗。
抗病毒治疗与社会隔离相结合可以减轻大流行的影响，但只有在最乐观的参数组合下才能控制住疫情。
