Rahamat-Langendoen J C, van Vliet J A
Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu, Centrum Infectieziektebestrijding, Postvak 75, Postbus 1, 3720 BA Bilthoven.
Ned Tijdschr Geneeskd. 2007 Jun 16;151(24):1333-8.
Based on the changes in the epidemiology of infectious diseases in the Netherlands in 2000-2005, it is possible to formulate a prediction for the immediate future. Developments that one may expect with a reasonable amount of certainty are a further rise in sexually transmitted diseases, continued vulnerability for infectious diseases for which the State Vaccination Programme distributes vaccines, a slow increase in bacterial resistance, an increase in opportunistic infections, and growing risks for the introduction of new micro-organisms via international travel and trade. Much less certain are the developments surrounding avian influenza A/H5N1, ticks and mosquitoes, the rise and spread of new diseases, and bioterrorism.
根据2000 - 2005年荷兰传染病流行病学的变化情况,可以对近期未来做出预测。可以有一定把握预期的发展趋势包括:性传播疾病进一步增加;国家疫苗接种计划所针对的传染病仍易感染;细菌耐药性缓慢上升;机会性感染增加;以及通过国际旅行和贸易引入新微生物的风险不断增大。而关于甲型H5N1禽流感、蜱虫和蚊子、新疾病的出现和传播以及生物恐怖主义等方面的发展情况则难以确定得多。