Nash Kent D, Pfeifer David L
Nash & Associates, Inc., Millican, TX 77866, USA.
J Prosthodont. 2007 Sep-Oct;16(5):383-93. doi: 10.1111/j.1532-849X.2007.00224.x. Epub 2007 Aug 2.
Data are used to examine current and future conditions important to the private practice of prosthodontics. A concern is raised as to whether the future supply of prosthodontists is in sync with the dynamics of the US population and patient population.
Four trends are examined using data from various sources. The trends include: (1) growth in the number of private practicing prosthodontists, (2) projections of the future number of private practicing prosthodontists, (3) first year enrollment in dental schools, and (4) enrollments and graduates in residency programs.
The number of private practicing prosthodontists has increased modestly over the past 21 years, growing 1.33% per year. The number of private practitioners is projected to reach 4,125 in 2025. A key variable in this projection is the growing number of elderly adults. While dental school enrollments have been increasing, concern is raised about the amount of exposure by students to an undergraduate curriculum in prosthodontics. There has been a general decline in enrollment in the nation's prosthodontics residency programs at the rate of -2.9% per year. An average of 181 program graduates are needed to achieve the 4125 projected number of private practitioners.
Increasing demand for services from prosthodontists is supported by an increasing US population size and a growing population of elderly. Efforts to grow the number of private practicing prosthodontists will have to consider several concerns including residency program enrollments, undergraduate exposure to prosthodontics, and the overall economic returns expected from engaging in the private practice of prosthodontics. Choosing a career as a private practicing prosthodontist is a timely consideration and complimented by expected increases in demand for care and favorable financial returns to practice.
运用数据审视对口腔修复学私人执业至关重要的当前及未来状况。人们对口腔修复医生的未来供应是否与美国人口及患者群体的动态变化同步表示担忧。
利用来自各种来源的数据审视四个趋势。这些趋势包括：（1）私人执业口腔修复医生数量的增长，（2）未来私人执业口腔修复医生数量的预测，（3）牙科学校的一年级入学人数，以及（4）住院医师项目的入学人数和毕业生人数。
在过去21年中，私人执业口腔修复医生数量适度增加，年增长率为1.33%。预计到2025年，私人执业医生数量将达到4125人。这一预测中的一个关键变量是老年人数量的不断增加。虽然牙科学校的入学人数一直在增加，但人们对学生在本科阶段接触口腔修复学课程的程度表示担忧。全国口腔修复学住院医师项目的入学人数总体呈下降趋势，年下降率为-2.9%。要达到预计的4125名私人执业医生数量，平均每年需要181名项目毕业生。
美国人口规模的增加和老年人口的增长支持了对口腔修复医生服务需求的增加。增加私人执业口腔修复医生数量的努力将不得不考虑几个问题，包括住院医师项目的入学人数、本科阶段对口腔修复学的接触，以及从事口腔修复学私人执业预期的总体经济回报。选择成为一名私人执业口腔修复医生是一个适时的考虑，同时预计对医疗服务的需求增加以及执业的良好经济回报也为之提供了支持。
