[Prognosis and spontaneous follow-up of psychological health and psychogenic disease].

Being able to look ahead, being able to make a correct prediction of events and developments has been of great interest to mankind since biblical times and with good reason. Due to his profession one expects from a doctor that he can make a prognosis. In the realm of psychogenic illnesses or of healthy persons certain barriers arise because of the lacking epidemiologic knowledge. We had to overcome these barriers in our cohort study conducted in Mannheim: In a random sample of 600 adults from a mostly healthy population, after conducting thorough psychoanalytic interviews a prognostic judgment was given for each person regarding the further course of psychic health or psychogenic illness (diagnosed for 26% of the persons). The spontaneous course and the accuracy of the prognosis was reexamined after three years. The quota of accuracy as well as occurring problems and considerations and a case oriented analysis of the prognostic misjudgements are discussed.