Cameriere Roberto, Ferrante Luigi, Belcastro Maria Giovanna, Bonfiglioli Benedetta, Rastelli Elisa, Cingolani Mariano
Institute of Legal Medicine, University of Macerata, Via Don Minzoni 9, 62100 Macerata, Italy.
J Forensic Sci. 2007 Sep;52(5):1151-5. doi: 10.1111/j.1556-4029.2007.00530.x. Epub 2007 Aug 6.
Changes in the size of the pulp canal, caused by apposition of secondary dentine, are the best morphometric parameters for estimating age by X-rays. The apposition of secondary dentine is the most frequently used method for age estimation in adult subjects. In two previous papers, we studied the application of the pulp/tooth area ratio by peri-apical X-rays as an indicator of age at death. The aim of the present study was to test the accuracy of age evaluation by combined analysis of labio-lingual and mesial peri-apical X-rays of lower and upper canines. A total of 200 such X-rays were assembled from 57 male and 43 female skeletons of Caucasian origin, aged between 20 and 79 years. For each skeleton, dental maturity was evaluated by measuring the pulp/tooth area ratio according to labio-lingual and mesial X-rays on upper (x(1), x(2)) and lower (x(3), x(4)) canines. Very good agreement was found between intra-observer measurements. Statistical analysis showed that all variables x(1), x(2), x(3), and x(4) and the first-order interaction between x(1) and x(3) contributed significantly to the fit, so that they were included in the regression model, yielding the following regression formula: Age = 120.737 - 337.112x(1) - 79.709x(2) - 364.534x(3) - 65.655x(4) + 1531.918x(1)x(3) . The residual standard error of estimated ages was 3.62 years, with 94 degrees of freedom, and the median of the residuals was -0.155 years, with an interquartile range of 4.96 years. The accuracy of the method was ME = 2.8 years, where ME is the mean prediction error. The model also explained 94% of total variance (R(2) = 0.94).
由继发性牙本质沉积引起的髓腔大小变化,是通过X射线估计年龄的最佳形态计量学参数。继发性牙本质沉积是成人年龄估计中最常用的方法。在之前的两篇论文中,我们研究了根尖周X射线测量的髓腔/牙齿面积比作为死亡年龄指标的应用。本研究的目的是通过联合分析上下颌尖牙的唇舌向和近中根尖周X射线来测试年龄评估的准确性。我们从57具男性和43具女性白种人骨骼中收集了总共200张这样的X射线,年龄在20至79岁之间。对于每具骨骼,根据上颌(x(1),x(2))和下颌(x(3),x(4))尖牙的唇舌向和近中X射线测量髓腔/牙齿面积比,评估牙齿成熟度。观察者内测量之间具有很好的一致性。统计分析表明,所有变量x(1)、x(2)、x(3)和x(4)以及x(1)和x(3)之间的一阶相互作用对拟合有显著贡献,因此将它们纳入回归模型,得到以下回归公式:年龄 = 120.737 - 337.112x(1) - 79.709x(2) - 364.534x(3) - 65.655x(4) + 1531.918x(1)x(3) 。估计年龄的残差标准误为3.62岁,自由度为94,残差中位数为 -0.155岁,四分位间距为4.96岁。该方法的准确性为平均预测误差(ME) = 2.8岁。该模型还解释了总方差的94%(R(2) = 0.94)。