Bess John D, Krahenbuhl Melinda P, Miller Scott C, Slaughter David M, Khokhryakov Viktor V, Khokhryakov Valentin F, Suslova Klara G, Vostrotin Vadim V
Center for Excellence in Nuclear Technology, Engineering, and Research (CENTER), 50 So. Central Campus Drive, Rm 1206, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USA.
Health Phys. 2007 Sep;93(3):207-19. doi: 10.1097/01.HP.0000266741.42070.e8.
The Doses-2005 model is a combination of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) models modified using data from the Mayak Production Association cohort. Surrogate doses from inhaled plutonium can be assigned to approximately 29% of the Mayak workers using their urine bioassay measurements and other history records. The purpose of this study was to quantify and qualify the uncertainties in the estimates for radiation doses calculated with the Doses-2005 model by using Monte Carlo methods and perturbation theory. The average uncertainty in the yearly dose estimates for most organs was approximately 100% regardless of the transportability classification. The relative source of the uncertainties comes from three main sources: 45% from the urine bioassay measurements, 29% from the Doses-2005 model parameters, and 26% from the reference masses for the organs. The most significant reduction in the overall dose uncertainties would result from improved methods in bioassay measurement with additional improvements generated through further model refinement. Additional uncertainties were determined for dose estimates resulting from changes in the transportability classification and the smoking toggle. A comparison was performed to determine the effect of using the model with data from either urine bioassay or autopsy data; no direct correlation could be established. Analysis of the model using autopsy data and incorporation of results from other research efforts that have utilized plutonium ICRP models could improve the Doses-2005 model and reduce the overall uncertainty in the dose estimates.
Doses - 2005模型是国际放射防护委员会（ICRP）模型与利用马亚克生产协会队列数据修改后的模型的组合。利用尿生物测定测量结果和其他历史记录，可将吸入钚的替代剂量分配给约29%的马亚克工人。本研究的目的是通过使用蒙特卡罗方法和微扰理论，对用Doses - 2005模型计算的辐射剂量估计中的不确定性进行量化和限定。无论可迁移性分类如何，大多数器官年剂量估计的平均不确定性约为100%。不确定性的相对来源主要有三个：45%来自尿生物测定测量，29%来自Doses - 2005模型参数，26%来自器官的参考质量。总体剂量不确定性的最大降低将来自生物测定测量方法的改进，以及通过进一步的模型细化产生的额外改进。还确定了可迁移性分类变化和吸烟切换导致的剂量估计的额外不确定性。进行了一项比较，以确定使用该模型结合尿生物测定数据或尸检数据的效果；无法建立直接相关性。使用尸检数据对模型进行分析，并纳入其他利用钚ICRP模型的研究工作的结果，可能会改进Doses - 2005模型并降低剂量估计的总体不确定性。
