Mogi K
Science. 1986 Jul 18;233(4761):324-30. doi: 10.1126/science.233.4761.324.
Japan has experienced many major earthquake disasters in the past. Early in this century research began that was aimed at predicting the occurrence of earthquakes, and in 1965 an earthquake prediction program was started as a national project. In 1978 a program for constant monitoring and assessment was formally inaugurated with the goal of forecasting the major earthquake that is expected to occur in the near future in the Tokai district of central Honshu Island. The issue of predicting the anticipated Tokai earthquake is discussed in this article as well as the results of research on major recent earthquakes in Japan-the Izu earthquakes (1978 and 1980) and the Japan Sea earthquake (1983).
日本过去经历过许多重大地震灾害。本世纪初就开始了旨在预测地震发生的研究,1965年启动了一项地震预测计划,作为一个国家项目。1978年,一个持续监测和评估计划正式启动,目标是预测本州岛中部东海地区近期可能发生的大地震。本文讨论了预测东海预期地震的问题,以及日本近期主要地震——伊豆地震(1978年和1980年)和日本海地震(1983年)的研究结果。