Associate Professor at the Department of Economics, Kyushu University, Japan.
Senior Researcher at the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, Japan.
Disasters. 2019 Jan;43(1):181-205. doi: 10.1111/disa.12294. Epub 2018 Jul 3.
This paper evaluates the mitigation effect of Tokai earthquake measures on housing damage using a counterfactual approach. It focuses on those measures that stimulate ex-ante investment in disaster prevention in the supposedly affected area, including earthquake-proof retrofitting and improved housing construction; the effect of the measures on housing losses is estimated monetarily. The study compares factual disaster damage computed using a real distribution of houses with counterfactual damage to a hypothetical housing distribution that would occur if the measures were not implemented. The key findings are: (i) the disaster mitigation effects of Tokai earthquake measures on housing amount to approximately JPY 18 billion (USD 0.18 billion) for Yamanashi Prefecture and JPY 0.26 trillion (USD 2.6 billion) for Shizuoka Prefecture, which would be at the centre of the event; (ii) a before-after comparison biases estimates of the mitigation effect; and (iii) statistically, the measures do not mitigate the housing damage predicted for an earthquake in Tokai.
本文采用反事实方法评估东海地震措施对住房损失的缓解效果。它侧重于那些刺激假定受灾地区事前投资于防灾的措施，包括抗震改造和改善住房建设；该措施对住房损失的影响以货币形式进行估计。该研究通过实际住房分布的实际灾害损失与如果不实施措施就会发生的假设住房分布的反事实损失进行比较。主要发现是：（i）东海地震措施对住房的灾害缓解效果在山梨县约为 180 亿日元（1.8 亿美元），在静冈县约为 2.6 万亿日元（26 亿美元），这两个县将是地震的中心；（ii）前后比较会使缓解效果的估计产生偏差；（iii）从统计学上讲，这些措施并没有减轻东海地震预测的住房损失。
