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[1988年至2005年中国开封县癌症死亡率趋势]

[The trend of cancer mortality from 1988 to 2005 in Kaifeng county, China].

作者信息

Cui Ya-Ling, Fu Li, Geng Zhen-Xin, Li Hai-Bing, Ma Shi, Lü Quan-Jun, Lu Wei-Quan, Yang Wen-Xian

机构信息

Henan Tumor Institute, Zhengzhou 450008, China.

出版信息

Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi. 2007 Jun;41 Suppl:62-5.

Abstract

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the time trends of cancer mortality among residents in Kaifeng county, Henan province.

METHODS

Data on cancer mortality from the vital registration system in Kaifeng county from 1988 to 2005 was analyzed. A total of 9543 death records (5974 males and 3567 females) due to malignant tumors were studied. A two-year-period age-specified standardized mortality rates were directly adjusted by the world standard population, and the annual percentage change (APC) of mortality were estimated by a linear logarithm regression.

RESULTS

The crude cancer death rate for male was 95.09/100,000 and its age-standardized death rate was 117.41/100,000. While, the crude cancer death rate for female was 59.13/100,000 and the age-standardized death rate was 57.15/100,000. There was a significant growth tread for lung cancer (APC: 6.54%), liver cancer (5.07%) in males and breast cancer (7.04%) in females in the groups aged over 18. On the contrary, the decreasing treads for esophageal cancer in both of sexes (-7.09%, -13.53%) were also observed in this study. Meanwhile, there was no other significant changes in the trend, either in the tumor sites or mortality, was observed.

CONCLUSION

In the past two decades, there has been a significant increasing trend for cancer mortality in Kaifeng county, of Henan Province. Hence, it is necessary to enhance epidemiological survey to identify risk factors at the earlier stages.

摘要

目的

调查河南省开封县居民癌症死亡率的时间趋势。

方法

分析开封县1988年至2005年生命登记系统中的癌症死亡率数据。共研究了9543例恶性肿瘤死亡记录(男性5974例,女性3567例)。采用世界标准人口直接调整两年期年龄别标准化死亡率,并通过线性对数回归估计死亡率的年度百分比变化(APC)。

结果

男性癌症粗死亡率为95.09/10万,年龄标准化死亡率为117.41/10万。而女性癌症粗死亡率为59.13/10万,年龄标准化死亡率为57.15/10万。18岁以上人群中,男性肺癌(APC:6.54%)、肝癌(5.07%)以及女性乳腺癌(7.04%)的死亡率呈显著上升趋势。相反,本研究中还观察到男女食管癌死亡率均呈下降趋势(分别为-7.09%、-13.53%)。同时,在肿瘤部位或死亡率方面未观察到其他显著变化趋势。

结论

在过去二十年中,河南省开封县癌症死亡率呈显著上升趋势。因此,有必要加强流行病学调查以尽早识别危险因素。

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