Carrera Analia, Ares Jorge, Labraga Juan, Thurner Stephanie, Bertiller Mónica
Centro Nacional Patagónico, Terrestrial Ecology Research Area, B. Brown 2825, 9120, Puerto Madryn, Argentina.
Environ Manage. 2007 Dec;40(6):944-57. doi: 10.1007/s00267-007-9007-0. Epub 2007 Sep 6.
We analyzed the possible effects of grazing management and future climate change on carbon (C) stocks in soils of northern Patagonian shrublands. To this aim, we coupled the outputs of three (HadCM3, CSIRO Mk2, and CCSR/NIES) global climate models to the CENTURY (v5.3) model of terrestrial C balance. The CENTURY model was initialized with long-term field data on local biome physiognomy, seasonal phenologic trends, and prevailing land-management systems and was validated with recent sequences of 1-km Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (MODIS-Terra) images and soil C data. In the tested scenarios, the predicted climate changes would result in increased total C in soil organic matter (SOMTC). Maximum SOMTC under changed climate forcing would not differ significantly from that expected under baseline conditions (8 kg m(-2)). A decrease in grazing intensity would result in SOMTC increases of 11% to 12% even if climate changes did not occur. Climate change would account for SOMTC increases of 5% to 6%.
我们分析了放牧管理和未来气候变化对巴塔哥尼亚北部灌丛土壤碳（C）储量的可能影响。为此，我们将三个全球气候模型（HadCM3、CSIRO Mk2和CCSR/NIES）的输出结果与陆地碳平衡的CENTURY（v5.3）模型相结合。CENTURY模型是根据当地生物群落地貌、季节性物候趋势和主要土地管理系统的长期实地数据初始化的，并用最近的1公里归一化植被指数（MODIS-Terra）图像序列和土壤碳数据进行了验证。在测试情景中，预测的气候变化将导致土壤有机质总碳（SOMTC）增加。在气候变化强迫下的最大SOMTC与基线条件下预期的（8 kg m(-2)）没有显著差异。即使不发生气候变化，放牧强度的降低也会导致SOMTC增加11%至12%。气候变化将导致SOMTC增加5%至6%。
