Siegenthaler U, Oeschger H
Science. 1978 Jan 27;199(4327):388-95. doi: 10.1126/science.199.4327.388.
Results from different models for the natural carbon dioxide cycle are compared. Special emphasis is given to the type of ocean modeling (diffusive deepsea or two-box ocean), behavior of the biosphere, and value of the oceanic buffer factor against carbon dixoide uptake. According to the most probable models, the fraction of the cumulative production remaining airborne will be between 46 and 80 percent 100 years from now for any realistic assumptions concerning future carbon dioxide production. For a prescribed maximum increase of 50 percent above the preindustrial carbon dioxide level, the production could grow by about 50 percent until the beginning of the next century, but should then decrease rapidly.
比较了自然二氧化碳循环不同模型的结果。特别强调了海洋建模的类型（扩散深海或双箱海洋）、生物圈的行为以及海洋对二氧化碳吸收的缓冲因子值。根据最可能的模型，对于任何有关未来二氧化碳排放的现实假设，从现在起100年后，累积排放中仍将留在大气中的部分将在46%至80%之间。如果规定在工业化前二氧化碳水平基础上最大增加50%，到下个世纪初排放量可能增长约50%，但之后应迅速下降。
