Zheng Chaozhi, Ovaskainen Otso, Saastamoinen Marjo, Hanski Ilkka
Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, P.O. Box 65, Viikinkaari I, FI-00014 University of Helsinki, Finland.
Ecology. 2007 Aug;88(8):1970-6. doi: 10.1890/06-1246.1.
We describe a Bayesian random effects model of mark-recapture data that accounts for age-dependence in survival and individual heterogeneity in capture probabilities and survival. The model is applied to data on the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) collected from a population enclosed in a large cage in the field. The cage population consisted of a mixture of butterflies originating from newly established and old populations in a large metapopulation in the Aland Islands in Finland. The explanatory variables in the model included the effects of temperature, sex, and population type (new vs. old) on capture probabilities, and the effects of age, sex, population type, and day vs. night on survival. We found that mortality rate increased with age, that mortality rate was much higher during the day than during the night, and that the life span of females originating from newly established populations was shorter than the life span of females from old populations. Capture probability decreased with increasing temperature and decreased with increasing mobility of individuals.
我们描述了一种用于标记重捕数据的贝叶斯随机效应模型，该模型考虑了生存中的年龄依赖性以及捕获概率和生存中的个体异质性。该模型应用于从野外一个大笼子里的种群收集的格兰维尔豹纹蝶（Melitaea cinxia）的数据。笼子里的种群由来自芬兰奥兰群岛一个大复合种群中新建立种群和旧种群的蝴蝶混合组成。模型中的解释变量包括温度、性别和种群类型（新种群与旧种群）对捕获概率的影响，以及年龄、性别、种群类型和白天与夜晚对生存的影响。我们发现死亡率随年龄增加而上升，白天的死亡率远高于夜晚，并且来自新建立种群的雌性寿命比来自旧种群的雌性寿命短。捕获概率随温度升高而降低，随个体活动能力增强而降低。
