Shapley D
Science. 1978 Sep 22;201(4361):1102-5. doi: 10.1126/science.201.4361.1102.
In three articles, Science will discuss how the creep of technology affects the arms race. The first two articles will deal with the most important current example: first, how ICBM modernization is giving both sides a destabilizing, first-strike capability, and second, how arms control seems to be dealing inadequately with this pressing problem. The third article will describe other cases of incremental technical improvements affecting arms control, such as antisatellite research and ballistic missile defense research, which are bringing both sides closer to the antiballistic missile capability they forswore in a 1972 treaty.
《科学》杂志将在三篇文章中探讨技术的缓慢发展如何影响军备竞赛。前两篇文章将论述当前最重要的例子:其一,洲际弹道导弹的现代化如何赋予双方一种破坏稳定的首次打击能力;其二,军备控制在应对这一紧迫问题上似乎存在不足。第三篇文章将描述技术渐进式改进影响军备控制的其他案例,比如反卫星研究和弹道导弹防御研究,这些研究正使双方更接近其在1972年一项条约中承诺放弃的反弹道导弹能力。