Predictive calculation of effectiveness of a regional bone marrow donor registry in Vojvodina, Serbia.

The aim of this study was to determine the percentages of patients from Vojvodina who would find at least one HLA identical unrelated donor in various sizes of donor files. To determine the probability that 200 patients will have given phenotype, we defined three-locus haplotype frequencies through the phenotype frequencies of HLA A,B and DR antigens as well as observed AB and BDR haplotype frequencies. Then we calculated the percentages of patients theoretically able to have at least one HLA identical donor in a donor file of a certain size. According to the results of a study sample, predictive estimation of the effectiveness of regional bone marrow donor registry in Vojvodina, would be 14% with 5,000 donors, 23% with 10,000 donors, 38.5% with 20,000 donors, 49.5% with 30,000 donors and 76% with 100,000 donors in the registry. The appropriate size of registered donor file that would give at least one HLA identical donor for more than 45% of patients from Vojvodina is 30,000 donors.