Molokanov A, Blanchardon E
IBPh, The State Research Center, Institute of Biophysics, 123182, Moscow, Zhivopisnaja, 46, Russia.
Radiat Prot Dosimetry. 2007;125(1-4):561-4. doi: 10.1093/rpd/ncl551. Epub 2007 Sep 11.
A method for investigating the uncertainty in internal dose estimate resulting from biological stochastic variability of excretion is proposed in the paper. The method is based on analysing generated cases of individual monitoring data using Monte Carlo simulation technique. In case of a single intake and assumption of stochastic variability of excretion is a single source of uncertainty it was shown that the intake (dose) uncertainty depends exclusively on the uncertainty of the bioassay data and the number of daily urine (faeces) measurements. Assuming a log-normal distribution for describing the variability of excretion a simple expression for calculating the uncertainty was proposed. In case of routine monitoring data it was shown that the uncertainty of annual intake (dose) estimate would depend on biological stochastic variability of excretion, type of excretion function and the number of monitoring intervals in a year. By the example of Pu and U aerosols it was shown that the effects of decreasing uncertainty in the dose estimate resulting from increasing the number of monitoring intervals in a year and from decreasing the uncertainty of bioassay data (performing a number of successive daily measurements, once in a year) should be estimated to optimise the routine monitoring program.
本文提出了一种研究因排泄生物随机变异性导致的内照射剂量估计不确定性的方法。该方法基于使用蒙特卡罗模拟技术分析生成的个体监测数据案例。在单次摄入且假设排泄随机变异性是不确定性的唯一来源的情况下，结果表明摄入（剂量）不确定性仅取决于生物测定数据的不确定性以及每日尿（粪）测量次数。假设采用对数正态分布来描述排泄变异性，提出了一个计算不确定性的简单表达式。对于常规监测数据，结果表明年摄入量（剂量）估计的不确定性将取决于排泄的生物随机变异性、排泄函数类型以及一年中的监测间隔次数。以钚和铀气溶胶为例，结果表明应评估因增加一年中的监测间隔次数以及降低生物测定数据的不确定性（每年进行一次连续的每日多次测量）而导致的剂量估计不确定性降低的影响，以优化常规监测计划。
