Blanchardon E, Molokanov A, Franck D, Kochetkov O, Panfilov A, Jourdain J-R
IRSN-Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety, Internal Dosimetry Department, IRSN/DRPH/SDI, B.P. 17, F-92262 Fontenay-aux-Roses Cedex, France.
Radiat Prot Dosimetry. 2007;125(1-4):548-52. doi: 10.1093/rpd/ncl552. Epub 2007 Jan 19.
The assessment of internal dose is subject to a large uncertainty due to the limits of measuring technique and to the assumptions made by the expert. Here, we propose an approach to report the confidence interval associated with the evaluated dose. The sources of uncertainties considered so far include the date of intake, the physico-chemical characteristics of the radioactive material, the counting error and the stochastic variability of excretion. Three successive levels of approximation are suggested, depending on the expected dose, for which increasingly realistic parameter values should be sought and applied. Finally, the results of a Monte Carlo dose calculation are presented in the form of a statistical distribution of possible dose values. This approach has been applied to two cases of uranium and caesium exposure.
由于测量技术的局限性以及专家所做的假设，内部剂量的评估存在很大的不确定性。在此，我们提出一种方法来报告与评估剂量相关的置信区间。目前考虑的不确定性来源包括摄入日期、放射性物质的物理化学特性、计数误差以及排泄的随机变异性。根据预期剂量，建议采用三个连续的近似水平，对于每个水平应寻求并应用越来越符合实际的参数值。最后，蒙特卡罗剂量计算的结果以可能剂量值的统计分布形式呈现。该方法已应用于铀和铯暴露的两个案例。
