Hilker Frank M, Westerhoff Frank H
Instituto Gulbenkian de Ciência, Apartado 14, 2781-901 Oeiras, Portugal.
Am Nat. 2007 Aug;170(2):232-41. doi: 10.1086/518949. Epub 2007 Jun 11.
Interactions in ecological communities are inherently nonlinear and can lead to complex population dynamics including irregular fluctuations induced by chaos. Chaotic population dynamics can exhibit violent oscillations with extremely small or large population abundances that might cause extinction and recurrent outbreaks, respectively. We present a simple method that can guide management efforts to prevent crashes, peaks, or any other undesirable state. At the same time, the irregularity of the dynamics can be preserved when chaos is desirable for the population. The control scheme is easy to implement because it relies on time series information only. The method is illustrated by two examples: control of crashes in the Ricker map and control of outbreaks in a stage-structured model of the flour beetle Tribolium. It turns out to be effective even with few available data and in the presence of noise, as is typical for ecological settings.
生态群落中的相互作用本质上是非线性的，可能导致复杂的种群动态，包括由混沌引起的不规则波动。混沌种群动态可能表现出剧烈振荡，种群数量极小或极大，分别可能导致灭绝和反复爆发。我们提出了一种简单的方法，可以指导管理工作，以防止种群崩溃、峰值或任何其他不良状态。同时，当混沌对种群有益时，可以保留动态的不规则性。该控制方案易于实施，因为它仅依赖于时间序列信息。通过两个例子说明了该方法：里克特映射中种群崩溃的控制以及面粉甲虫赤拟谷盗阶段结构模型中爆发的控制。事实证明，即使可用数据很少且存在噪声，该方法也是有效的，而这在生态环境中是很典型的。
