Veerman J Lennert, Barendregt Jan J, van Beeck Ed F, Seidell Jacob C, Mackenbach Johan P
University of Queensland School of Population Health, Herston Road, Herston, Qld 4006, Australia.
Obesity (Silver Spring). 2007 Sep;15(9):2365-70. doi: 10.1038/oby.2007.280.
Obesity is a growing problem worldwide, but there are no good methods to assess the future course of the epidemic and the potential influence of interventions. We explore the behavior change needed to stop the obesity epidemic in the U.S.
We modeled the population distribution of BMI as a log-normal curve of which the mean shifts upward with time due to a positive population energy balance. Interventions that decrease food intake or increase physical activity result in more favorable trends in BMI.
The recently observed trend in average BMI implies that the average U.S. adult over-consumes by approximately 10 kcal/d. If this trend continues unaltered, obesity prevalence will exceed 40% for men and 45% for women in 2015. To stop the epidemic, it suffices to decrease caloric consumption by approximately 10 kcal or walk an extra 2 to 3 minutes per day, on average.
This leads to a paradox: little behavior change seems sufficient to halt the epidemic, but in practice this proves hard to achieve. The obesogenic environment is the likely culprit. Individuals trying to maintain a healthy weight need to be supported by environments that stimulate physical activity and do not encourage over-consumption. Research should show what measures are effective.
肥胖是一个在全球范围内日益严重的问题，但目前尚无评估该流行病未来发展趋势以及干预措施潜在影响的有效方法。我们探讨了在美国阻止肥胖流行所需的行为改变。
我们将体重指数（BMI）的人群分布模拟为对数正态曲线，由于人群能量正平衡，该曲线的均值随时间向上移动。减少食物摄入量或增加身体活动的干预措施会使BMI呈现更有利的趋势。
最近观察到的平均BMI趋势表明，美国成年人平均每天摄入热量超标约10千卡。如果这种趋势持续不变，到2015年，男性肥胖患病率将超过40%，女性将超过45%。要阻止这一流行病，平均每天减少约10千卡热量摄入或多步行2至3分钟就足够了。
这导致了一个悖论：似乎只需很少的行为改变就能阻止这一流行病，但实际上这很难实现。致胖环境可能是罪魁祸首。试图维持健康体重的个人需要有鼓励身体活动且不助长过度消费的环境的支持。研究应表明哪些措施是有效的。
