Australian heroin seizures and the causes of the 2001 heroin shortage.

This paper uses Australian heroin seizure data, along with estimates of the size of the Australian heroin market to evaluate the impact of drug law enforcement on the 2001 Australian heroin shortage from the percentage of the market seized. It also critically examines international heroin production trends and published reports on the causes of the Australian heroin shortage. Its conclusion is that previous studies may have overstated the success of drug law enforcement and that the most likely explanation for Australia's 2001 heroin shortage was a significant decline in heroin production world-wide, due to a general move away from heroin production in the countries of Southeast Asia and the prohibition on opium growing by the Taliban regime in Afghanistan.