Baker Stuart G, Kramer Barnett S
Biometry Research Group, Division of Cancer Prevention, National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD 20892-7354, USA.
Stat Methods Med Res. 2008 Jun;17(3):243-52. doi: 10.1177/0962280207080640. Epub 2007 Oct 9.
The strength of the randomized trial to yield conclusions not dependent on assumptions applies only in an ideal setting. In the real world various complications such as loss-to-follow-up, missing outcomes, noncompliance and nonrandom selection into a trial force a reliance on assumptions. To handle real world complications, it is desirable to make as few and as reasonable assumptions as possible. This article reviews four techniques for using a few reasonable assumptions to design or analyse randomized trials in the presence of specific real world complications: 1) a double sampling design for survival data to avoid strong assumptions about informative censoring, 2) sensitivity analysis for partially missing binary outcomes that uses the randomization to reduce the number of parameters specified by the investigator, 3) an estimate of the effect of treatment received in the presence of all-or-none compliance that requires reasonable assumptions, and 4) statistics for binary outcomes that avoid some assumptions for generalizing results to a target population.
随机试验得出不依赖假设的结论的优势仅适用于理想环境。在现实世界中,各种并发症,如失访、结局缺失、不依从以及试验中的非随机选择,迫使我们依赖假设。为处理现实世界中的并发症,应尽可能少且合理地做出假设。本文回顾了四种在存在特定现实世界并发症的情况下,使用少量合理假设来设计或分析随机试验的技术:1)用于生存数据的双重抽样设计,以避免对信息性删失做出强假设;2)针对部分缺失二元结局的敏感性分析,利用随机化减少研究者指定的参数数量;3)在全或无依从情况下接受治疗效果的估计,这需要合理假设;4)用于二元结局的统计学方法,避免将结果推广到目标人群时的一些假设。