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气象因素对香港淘大花园严重急性呼吸综合征(SARS)社区爆发可能产生的影响。

Possible meteorological influence on the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) community outbreak at Amoy Gardens, Hong Kong.

作者信息

Yip Cleo, Chang Wen L, Yeung K H, Yu Ignatius T S

机构信息

Department of Community and Family Medicine, School of Public Health, Prince of Wales Hospital, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, New Territories, China.

出版信息

J Environ Health. 2007 Oct;70(3):39-46.

Abstract

The largest community outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) occurred in the Amoy Gardens residential estate in Hong Kong, in March and April of 2003. It affected more than 300 residents, or 1.7 percent of the total Amoy Gardens population. An airborne pathway has been hypothesized as a possible mode for the spread of the disease. If that hypothesis is correct, meteorological factors may have played a contributory role; the virus-laden aerosols may have been transported between apartment blocks by the ambient wind, low mixing heights may have prevented the efficient dispersion of the aerosols, and a fall in temperature may have fostered the survival of the virus or increased the susceptibility of the exposed population. This information, used in combination with weather forecasts available several days ahead from meteorological services, should be useful for mitigation considerations in the unlikely event of a similar occurrence.

摘要

严重急性呼吸系统综合症(SARS)最大规模的社区爆发于2003年3月和4月发生在香港淘大花园住宅区。此次爆发影响了300多名居民,占淘大花园总人口的1.7%。一种空气传播途径被假定为该疾病传播的一种可能方式。如果这一假设正确,气象因素可能起到了促成作用;携带病毒的气溶胶可能被环境风在公寓楼之间传播,低混合高度可能阻止了气溶胶的有效扩散,而气温下降可能促进了病毒的存活或增加了暴露人群的易感性。这些信息,结合气象部门提前几天提供的天气预报,在不太可能发生类似事件的情况下,应有助于减轻影响的考虑。

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