Fauth Elizabeth Braungart, Zarit Steven H, Malmberg Bo, Johansson Boo
Department of Family, Consumer, and Human Development, Utah State University, 2905 Old Main Hill, Logan, UT 84322-2905, USA.
Gerontologist. 2007 Oct;47(5):613-24. doi: 10.1093/geront/47.5.613.
This study used the Disablement Process Model to predict whether a sample of the oldest-old maintained their disability or disability-free status over a 2- and 4-year follow-up, or whether they transitioned into a state of disability during this time.
We followed a sample of 149 Swedish adults who were 86 years of age or older over a period of 4 years; we grouped them by ability in activities of daily living as being functional survivors (nondisabled over time), increasingly disabled (initially nondisabled but later disabled), chronically disabled (disabled at all waves), or deceased. We used variables from baseline to predict group membership into these four longitudinal outcome groups.
Results indicated that demographic factors, physical impairments, physical and cognitive limitations, and psychosocial variables at baseline predicted membership into the functional survivor group after 2 years and most continued to distinguish between functional survivors and other groups after 4 years.
These findings indicate key variables that may be useful in predicting shorter term longitudinal changes in disability. By understanding the physical, cognitive, and psychological variables that predict whether a person develops a disability within the next 2 or 4 years, we may be better able to plan for care or implement appropriate interventions.
本研究采用失能过程模型，以预测高龄老人样本在2年和4年随访期间是否维持失能或无失能状态，或者在此期间他们是否转变为失能状态。
我们对149名86岁及以上的瑞典成年人进行了为期4年的随访；根据日常生活活动能力将他们分为功能存活者（长期无失能）、失能加重者（最初无失能但后来失能）、慢性失能者（各阶段均失能）或死亡者。我们使用基线变量来预测这四个纵向结局组的分组情况。
结果表明，基线时的人口统计学因素、身体损伤、身体和认知限制以及心理社会变量可预测2年后进入功能存活者组的情况，并且4年后大多数因素仍能区分功能存活者与其他组。
这些发现表明了一些关键变量，它们可能有助于预测失能的短期纵向变化。通过了解那些能预测一个人在未来2年或4年内是否会出现失能的身体、认知和心理变量，我们或许能更好地规划护理或实施适当的干预措施。
