Meadows Eric S, Rousculp Matthew, Sasser Alicia C, Birnbaum Howard G, Moyneur Erick, Mallet David, Johnston Joseph A
Eli Lilly and Company, Indianapolis, IN, USA.
Curr Med Res Opin. 2007 Dec;23(12):3215-22. doi: 10.1185/030079907X242908.
To characterize first-year utilization patterns of teriparatide derived from a claims database analysis versus predictions from an economic model.
Claims data for actual teriparatide utilization were obtained from an integrated administrative database of approximately 3.4 million beneficiaries. A control group included patients with osteoporosis but without the use of teriparatide. An economic model, which relied on first-year market share projections, predicted the utilization of teriparatide from the demographic characteristics of the plan. Predictions were compared to actual utilization for eight health plans within the database.
Demographic and clinical characteristics, number of teriparatide patients, and days of teriparatide therapy.
Less than 1% of patients diagnosed with osteoporosis received teriparatide. Teriparatide-treated patients, compared to other patients with osteoporosis, were older and more likely to have experienced a previous fracture or to have received previous osteoporosis pharmacotherapy. For the combined 505 300 lives in the eight plans used for the comparative analysis, there were 134 teriparatide patients; the model predicted 131. For individual plans, the predictions varied in their accuracy. The greatest under-prediction for one plan was 17 patients (40 predicted vs. 57 actual), while the greatest over-prediction was 18 patients (34 predicted vs. 16 actual). For the other 6 plans, the predictions were within four patients of the actual number of teriparatide users. A similar pattern of differences was observed by comparing actual versus predicted days of teriparatide therapy across the eight plans.
Some clinical details of the actual patient cohorts, such as bone mineral density results, were not available in the database. The comparisons made between the teriparatide model predictions and actual utilization were based on analyses of a single model and do not speak to the broader issue of the accuracy of predictive economic models in general.
Overall, first-year teriparatide utilization was relatively limited, consistent with model predictions. Predictions for individual plans varied in their accuracy.
通过对索赔数据库分析得出的特立帕肽首年使用模式与经济模型预测结果进行对比，以对其进行特征描述。
实际使用特立帕肽的索赔数据来自一个约有340万受益人的综合管理数据库。对照组包括患有骨质疏松症但未使用特立帕肽的患者。一个依赖首年市场份额预测的经济模型，根据计划的人口统计学特征预测特立帕肽的使用情况。将预测结果与数据库中八个健康计划的实际使用情况进行比较。
人口统计学和临床特征、特立帕肽治疗患者数量以及特立帕肽治疗天数。
诊断为骨质疏松症的患者中，接受特立帕肽治疗的不到1%。与其他骨质疏松症患者相比，接受特立帕肽治疗的患者年龄更大，更有可能既往有过骨折或接受过骨质疏松症药物治疗。在用于比较分析的八个计划中的505300名参保人中，有134名使用特立帕肽的患者；模型预测为131名。对于各个计划，预测的准确性各不相同。一个计划最大的预测不足为17名患者（预测40名，实际57名），而最大的预测过度为18名患者（预测
