De Young G, Maini P K, Nakamaye M
Institute of Theoretical Dynamics, University of California, Davis 95616.
Math Biosci. 1991 Sep;106(1):129-50. doi: 10.1016/0025-5564(91)90042-h.
Several models for the spread of AIDS within a homosexual community have been proposed that incorporate biased mixing of different risk groups. A simple model is presented that captures many of the features of these more complex models. Analytical expressions are derived for the time to the state of maximum infection (SMI) in a particular risk group, the proportion infected at SMI, and the number of infected individuals as the group approaches SMI. These results agree qualitatively with numerical simulations of the model.
已经提出了几种关于艾滋病在同性恋群体中传播的模型，这些模型纳入了不同风险群体的偏向性混合。本文提出了一个简单模型，该模型捕捉了这些更复杂模型的许多特征。推导了特定风险群体达到最大感染状态（SMI）的时间、SMI时的感染比例以及当该群体接近SMI时感染个体数量的解析表达式。这些结果在定性上与模型的数值模拟结果一致。
