艾滋病感染增长的风险模型分析。

Analysis of a risk-based model for the growth of AIDS infection.

作者信息

De Young G, Maini P K, Nakamaye M

机构信息

Institute of Theoretical Dynamics, University of California, Davis 95616.

出版信息

Math Biosci. 1991 Sep;106(1):129-50. doi: 10.1016/0025-5564(91)90042-h.

DOI:10.1016/0025-5564(91)90042-h

PMID:1802173

Abstract

Several models for the spread of AIDS within a homosexual community have been proposed that incorporate biased mixing of different risk groups. A simple model is presented that captures many of the features of these more complex models. Analytical expressions are derived for the time to the state of maximum infection (SMI) in a particular risk group, the proportion infected at SMI, and the number of infected individuals as the group approaches SMI. These results agree qualitatively with numerical simulations of the model.

摘要

已经提出了几种关于艾滋病在同性恋群体中传播的模型，这些模型纳入了不同风险群体的偏向性混合。本文提出了一个简单模型，该模型捕捉了这些更复杂模型的许多特征。推导了特定风险群体达到最大感染状态（SMI）的时间、SMI时的感染比例以及当该群体接近SMI时感染个体数量的解析表达式。这些结果在定性上与模型的数值模拟结果一致。