Wilkie A D
R. Watson & Sons, Consulting Actuaries, Reigate, U.K.
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 1989 Sep 5;325(1226):99-112. doi: 10.1098/rstb.1989.0075.
This paper gives details of a model for forecasting AIDS, developed for actuarial purposes, but used also for population projections. The model is only appropriate for homosexual transmission, but it is age-specific, and it allows variation in the transition intensities by age, duration in certain states and calendar year. The differential equations controlling transitions between states are defined, the method of numerical solution is outlined, and the parameters used in five different Bases of projection are given in detail. Numerical results for the population of England and Wales are shown.
本文详细介绍了一个用于预测艾滋病的模型，该模型是为精算目的而开发的，但也用于人口预测。该模型仅适用于同性恋传播，但它是按年龄划分的，并且允许根据年龄、在某些状态下的持续时间和日历年在转变强度上存在差异。定义了控制状态之间转变的微分方程，概述了数值求解方法，并详细给出了在五种不同预测基础中使用的参数。展示了英格兰和威尔士人口的数值结果。
