The dynamics of gene amplification described as a multitype compartmental model and as a branching process.

The present work is aimed at developing the mathematical tools by which the dynamics of gene amplification (GA) can be described in detail. Some discrete compartmental models of GA by disproportionate replication and a general model for other putative GA mechanisms are presented and analyzed. The dynamical distribution of gene copy number in the cell population is calculated with the loss of cells taken either as constant or as copy-number-dependent. Our analysis shows that for a one-copy GA process with constant loss of cells, the relative frequency of single-gene-copy cells (sensitive cells) converges to zero, with the rate of convergence depending on the amplification probability. In contrast, for a one-copy GA process with copy-number-dependent loss of cells, the relative frequency of single-copy cells is bounded, implying a bounded compartment of many-gene-copy cells. Using branching processes theory we calculate the dynamical distribution of the single-gene-copy compartment as well as its extinction probability. Our models are used for estimating treatment prognosis as affected by drug resistance due to GA, showing significant differences in prognosis resulting from small changes in drug dose.