Estrada-Peña Agustin, Zatansever Zati, Gargili Aysen, Aktas Munir, Uzun Ramazan, Ergonul Onder, Jongejan Frans
Department of Parasitology, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Zaragoza, Zaragoza, Spain.
Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis. 2007 Winter;7(4):667-78. doi: 10.1089/vbz.2007.0134.
The more than 1100 human cases of Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever (CCHF) reported in a continuing series of outbreaks that started in 2003 in Turkey constitute the largest epidemic of the disease since CCHF was first recognized in 1944. The spatial distribution of CCHF case reporting rates in Turkey was studied to look for clusters of disease. We applied the spatial scan analysis to test the hypothesis of whether there were areas with a higher than expected number of CCHF cases. The analysis was conducted through windows of 10, 20, 40 and 80 km in diameter[SR1] to determine whether clustering of cases was dependent on the size of the scanning window. At the largest window size, consistent patterns of significantly higher than expected numbers of CCHF cases were found in a total of 40 administrative districts. A predictive model to map the habitat suitability for the vector tick was developed from satellite-based climate data and high-resolution features of the vegetation from Landsat images covering the whole country. It was found that areas of higher risk (higher CCHF reporting) were correlated (p<0.05) with zones of high climate suitability for the tick together with a high rate of fragmentation of agricultural land interspersed between forest and shrub-type vegetation.
自2003年在土耳其开始的一系列持续疫情中报告的1100多例克里米亚-刚果出血热（CCHF）人间病例，是自1944年首次确认CCHF以来该疾病最大规模的疫情。研究了土耳其CCHF病例报告率的空间分布，以寻找疾病聚集区。我们应用空间扫描分析来检验是否存在CCHF病例数高于预期的区域这一假设。分析通过直径为10、20、40和80公里的窗口进行，以确定病例聚集是否取决于扫描窗口的大小。在最大窗口尺寸下，在总共40个行政区发现了CCHF病例数显著高于预期的一致模式。利用基于卫星的气候数据和覆盖全国的陆地卫星图像的植被高分辨率特征，建立了一个预测模型，以绘制媒介蜱的栖息地适宜性图。研究发现，高风险区域（CCHF报告率较高）与蜱的高气候适宜区以及森林和灌木型植被之间散布的高农田破碎化率相关（p<0.05）。
