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以外生风险下降评估监管有效性:以消费品安全委员会1973年床垫标准为例

Assessing regulatory effectiveness with exogenously declining risk: a case study of the CPSC's 1973 mattress standard.

作者信息

Tohamy Soumaya M, Aiken Deborah Vaughn

机构信息

Directorate for Economic Analysis, U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission, 4330 East West Highway, Bethesda, MD 20814, USA.

出版信息

J Safety Res. 2007;38(6):661-8. doi: 10.1016/j.jsr.2007.09.003. Epub 2007 Nov 12.

DOI:10.1016/j.jsr.2007.09.003
PMID:18054597
Abstract

INTRODUCTION

This paper examines the contribution of the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission's (CPSC) 1973 cigarette ignition mattress flammability standard to reduce mattress fires since 1980, when the U.S. Fire Administration's National Fire Incident Reporting System became fully operational.

METHOD

The paper attempts to separate the effect of the cigarette ignition standard from the declining trend in mattress fires that would have resulted without the standard. We analyze the impact of the 1973 cigarette standard on smoking material ignition fires, deaths, and injuries as well as its effect on fires, deaths, and injuries from all ignition sources (smoking material ignitions, open-flame ignitions, and other ignition sources). Impacts on Industry: The results suggest that the 1973 mattress standard has effectively reduced the mattress fire risk and that further reductions in risk via actions tied specifically to cigarette ignition are likely to be difficult to achieve.

摘要

引言

本文探讨了自1980年美国消防管理局的国家火灾事故报告系统全面运行以来,美国消费品安全委员会(CPSC)1973年的香烟点燃床垫易燃性标准对减少床垫火灾的贡献。

方法

本文试图将香烟点燃标准的影响与在没有该标准情况下床垫火灾下降趋势区分开来。我们分析了1973年香烟标准对吸烟材料引发火灾、死亡和伤害的影响,以及其对所有点火源(吸烟材料点火、明火点火和其他点火源)引发的火灾、死亡和伤害的影响。对行业的影响:结果表明,1973年的床垫标准有效地降低了床垫火灾风险,通过专门针对香烟点燃采取行动进一步降低风险可能难以实现。

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