White L Forsberg, Pagano M
Department of Biostatistics, Boston University School of Public Health, 715 Albany St, Boston, MA 02118, USA.
Stat Med. 2008 Jul 20;27(16):2999-3016. doi: 10.1002/sim.3136.
We present a method for the simultaneous estimation of the basic reproductive number, R(0), and the serial interval for infectious disease epidemics, using readily available surveillance data. These estimates can be obtained in real time to inform an appropriate public health response to the outbreak. We show how this methodology, in its most simple case, is related to a branching process and describe similarities between the two that allow us to draw parallels which enable us to understand some of the theoretical properties of our estimators. We provide simulation results that illustrate the efficacy of the method for estimating R(0) and the serial interval in real time. Finally, we implement our proposed method with data from three infectious disease outbreaks.
我们提出了一种利用现成的监测数据同时估计传染病流行的基本繁殖数R(0)和传播间隔的方法。这些估计值可以实时获得,以便为针对疫情的适当公共卫生应对提供信息。我们展示了这种方法在最简单的情况下如何与分支过程相关,并描述了两者之间的相似性,这些相似性使我们能够进行类比,从而理解我们估计量的一些理论性质。我们提供的模拟结果说明了该方法实时估计R(0)和传播间隔的有效性。最后,我们用来自三次传染病疫情的数据实施了我们提出的方法。