Narayan Paresh Kumar, Narayan Seema
Faculty of Business and Law, Deakin University, Burwood, Australia.
Health Econ. 2008 Oct;17(10):1171-86. doi: 10.1002/hec.1316.
While there is a growing literature that examines the issue of cointegration (co-movement over the long run) among health expenditures, there are no studies that examine the issue of common cycles (co-movement over the short run) among health expenditures. We undertake a multivariate variance decomposition analysis of per capita health expenditures of the USA, the UK, Japan, Canada, and Switzerland based on a common-trend-common-cycle restriction framework, to examine the relative importance of permanent and transitory innovations in explaining variations in per capita health expenditures in each of the five countries. Our main finding is that transitory shocks are more important in explaining per capita health expenditures in the UK, Japan, and Switzerland, while permanent shocks dominate variations in per capita health expenditures in the USA and Canada over short horizons.
虽然有越来越多的文献探讨了卫生支出之间的协整问题（长期共同变动），但尚无研究考察卫生支出之间的共同周期问题（短期共同变动）。我们基于一个共同趋势-共同周期限制框架，对美国、英国、日本、加拿大和瑞士的人均卫生支出进行了多元方差分解分析，以检验永久性和暂时性创新在解释这五个国家中每个国家人均卫生支出变化方面的相对重要性。我们的主要发现是，暂时性冲击在解释英国、日本和瑞士的人均卫生支出方面更为重要，而在短期内，永久性冲击在美国和加拿大的人均卫生支出变化中占主导地位。
