McGill William L, Ayyub Bilal M, Kaminskiy Mark
Center for Technology and Systems Management, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA.
Risk Anal. 2007 Oct;27(5):1265-81. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2007.00955.x.
This article proposes a quantitative risk assessment and management framework that supports strategic asset-level resource allocation decision making for critical infrastructure and key resource protection. The proposed framework consists of five phases: scenario identification, consequence and criticality assessment, security vulnerability assessment, threat likelihood assessment, and benefit-cost analysis. Key innovations in this methodology include its initial focus on fundamental asset characteristics to generate an exhaustive set of plausible threat scenarios based on a target susceptibility matrix (which we refer to as asset-driven analysis) and an approach to threat likelihood assessment that captures adversary tendencies to shift their preferences in response to security investments based on the expected utilities of alternative attack profiles assessed from the adversary perspective. A notional example is provided to demonstrate an application of the proposed framework. Extensions of this model to support strategic portfolio-level analysis and tactical risk analysis are suggested.
本文提出了一个定量风险评估与管理框架，该框架支持针对关键基础设施和关键资源保护进行战略资产层面的资源分配决策。所提出的框架包括五个阶段：情景识别、后果与关键性评估、安全脆弱性评估、威胁可能性评估以及效益成本分析。这种方法的关键创新点包括：其最初侧重于基本资产特征，以基于目标易损性矩阵生成一套详尽的合理威胁情景（我们将其称为资产驱动分析）；以及一种威胁可能性评估方法，该方法基于从对手角度评估的替代攻击方案的预期效用，捕捉对手因应安全投资而改变偏好的倾向。提供了一个概念示例来演示所提出框架的应用。还建议对该模型进行扩展，以支持战略投资组合层面的分析和战术风险分析。
