Apostolakis George E, Lemon Douglas M
Engineering Systems Division and Department of Nuclear Science and Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139-4307, USA.
Risk Anal. 2005 Apr;25(2):361-76. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00595.x.
The extreme importance of critical infrastructures to modern society is widely recognized. These infrastructures are complex and interdependent. Protecting the critical infrastructures from terrorism presents an enormous challenge. Recognizing that society cannot afford the costs associated with absolute protection, it is necessary to identify and prioritize the vulnerabilities in these infrastructures. This article presents a methodology for the identification and prioritization of vulnerabilities in infrastructures. We model the infrastructures as interconnected digraphs and employ graph theory to identify the candidate vulnerable scenarios. These scenarios are screened for the susceptibility of their elements to a terrorist attack, and a prioritized list of vulnerabilities is produced. The prioritization methodology is based on multiattribute utility theory. The impact of losing infrastructure services is evaluated using a value tree that reflects the perceptions and values of the decisionmaker and the relevant stakeholders. These results, which are conditional on a specified threat, are provided to the decisionmaker for use in risk management. The methodology is illustrated through the presentation of a portion of the analysis conducted on the campus of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
关键基础设施对现代社会的极端重要性已得到广泛认可。这些基础设施复杂且相互依存。保护关键基础设施免受恐怖主义威胁是一项巨大挑战。鉴于社会无法承受与绝对保护相关的成本，有必要识别这些基础设施中的漏洞并确定其优先级。本文提出了一种识别基础设施漏洞并确定其优先级的方法。我们将基础设施建模为相互连接的有向图，并运用图论来识别候选脆弱情景。对这些情景的元素遭受恐怖袭击的易感性进行筛选，从而生成一份按优先级排序的漏洞清单。优先级排序方法基于多属性效用理论。使用反映决策者和相关利益相关者认知与价值观的价值树来评估失去基础设施服务的影响。这些以特定威胁为条件的结果提供给决策者用于风险管理。通过展示对麻省理工学院校园进行的部分分析来说明该方法。
