Matheny Jason G
Department of Health Policy and Management, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA.
Risk Anal. 2007 Oct;27(5):1335-44. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2007.00960.x.
In this century a number of events could extinguish humanity. The probability of these events may be very low, but the expected value of preventing them could be high, as it represents the value of all future human lives. We review the challenges to studying human extinction risks and, by way of example, estimate the cost effectiveness of preventing extinction-level asteroid impacts.
在本世纪，一些事件可能会毁灭人类。这些事件发生的概率可能非常低，但预防它们的预期价值可能很高，因为这代表着所有未来人类生命的价值。我们审视了研究人类灭绝风险所面临的挑战，并举例估算了预防小行星撞击导致灭绝级灾难的成本效益。
