Neve Paul
Warwick HRI, University of Warwick, Wellesbourne, Warwickshire CV35 9EF, UK.
Pest Manag Sci. 2008 Apr;64(4):392-401. doi: 10.1002/ps.1495.
A simulation model is used to explore the influence of biological, ecological, genetic and operational (management) factors on the probability and rate of glyphosate resistance in model weed species.
Glyphosate use for weed control prior to crop emergence is associated with low risks of resistance. These low risks can be further reduced by applying glyphosate in sequence with other broad-spectrum herbicides prior to crop seeding. Post-emergence glyphosate use, associated with glyphosate-resistant crops, very significantly increases risks of resistance evolution. Annual rotation with conventional crops reduces these risks, but the proportion of resistant populations can only be reduced to close to zero by mixing two of three post-emergence glyphosate applications with alternative herbicide modes of action. Weed species that are prolific seed producers with high seed bank turnover rates are most at risk of glyphosate resistance evolution. The model is especially sensitive to the initial frequency of R alleles, and other genetic and reproductive parameters, including weed breeding system, dominance of the resistance trait and relative fitness, influence rates of resistance.
Changing patterns of glyphosate use associated with glyphosate-resistant crops are increasing risks of evolved glyphosate resistance. Strategies to mitigate these risks can be explored with simulation models. Models can also be used to identify weed species that are most at risk of evolving glyphosate resistance.
使用模拟模型来探究生物、生态、遗传和操作（管理）因素对模式杂草物种中草甘膦抗性概率和速率的影响。
在作物出苗前使用草甘膦进行杂草控制，抗性风险较低。在作物播种前将草甘膦与其他广谱除草剂按顺序施用，可进一步降低这些低风险。与抗草甘膦作物相关的苗后草甘膦使用，会非常显著地增加抗性进化的风险。与传统作物进行年度轮作可降低这些风险，但通过将三次苗后草甘膦施用中的两次与替代除草剂作用模式混合使用，抗性种群的比例才能降低至接近零。种子产量高且种子库周转率高的杂草物种，最易发生草甘膦抗性进化。该模型对R等位基因的初始频率特别敏感，其他遗传和生殖参数，包括杂草育种系统、抗性性状的显性和相对适合度，都会影响抗性速率。
与抗草甘膦作物相关的草甘膦使用模式变化，正在增加草甘膦抗性进化的风险。可通过模拟模型探索减轻这些风险的策略。模型还可用于识别最易发生草甘膦抗性进化的杂草物种。
