Cabrera de León Antonio, Coello Santiago Domínguez, Rodríguez Pérez María Del Cristo, Medina Marta Batista, Almeida González Delia, Díaz Buenaventura Brito, de Fuentes Mercedes Muros, Aguirre-Jaime Armando
Research Unit of La Candelaria University Hospital, Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain.
Diabetes Res Clin Pract. 2008 Apr;80(1):128-33. doi: 10.1016/j.diabres.2007.10.022. Epub 2007 Dec 21.
To develop a straightforward risk score for type 2 diabetes (DM2) screening to use in clinical practice.
A sample of 6237 adult inhabitants of the Canary Islands (Spain) was randomly divided into two subgroups: one yielded data used to develop the instrument, and the other yielded data used for validation testing. Performance of the instrument was compared in persons with clinically diagnosed DM2 and undiagnosed diabetes. The risk score, calculated by multivariate logistic regression, included the potential risk variables that yielded the highest odds ratio in the univariate analysis. A cut-off point for screening purposes was established at a 99% negative predictive value.
In men, variables included in the risk score were age, waist/height ratio, familial antecedents of diabetes, and systolic blood pressure (ROC curve 0.837, 95% CI: 0.803-0.871). In women, the risk score contained the same variables plus gestational diabetes history (ROC curve 0.874, 95% CI: 0.847-0901). Excluding systolic blood pressure from the score had no significant effect on the area under the curve. This instrument resulted valid only for people aged less than 55 years.
This simple risk score for DM2 would be easy to apply in clinical practice.
开发一种用于2型糖尿病（DM2）筛查的简易风险评分，以应用于临床实践。
将6237名加那利群岛（西班牙）成年居民的样本随机分为两个亚组：一组提供用于开发该工具的数据，另一组提供用于验证测试的数据。在临床诊断为DM2和未诊断出糖尿病的人群中比较该工具的性能。通过多变量逻辑回归计算的风险评分包括在单变量分析中产生最高比值比的潜在风险变量。为筛查目的设定的截断点为99%的阴性预测值。
在男性中，风险评分中的变量包括年龄、腰高比、糖尿病家族史和收缩压（ROC曲线0.837，95%可信区间：0.803 - 0.871）。在女性中，风险评分包含相同变量加上妊娠糖尿病史（ROC曲线0.874，95%可信区间：0.847 - 0.901）。从评分中排除收缩压对曲线下面积没有显著影响。该工具仅对年龄小于55岁的人群有效。
这种简单的DM2风险评分在临床实践中易于应用。
