Song Fengju, He Min, Li Haixin, Qian Biyun, Wei Qingyi, Zhang Wei, Chen Kexin, Hao Xishan
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Tianjin Medical University Cancer Hospital and Institute, Tianjin, 300060, P.R. China.
Cancer Causes Control. 2008 Jun;19(5):443-50. doi: 10.1007/s10552-007-9105-6. Epub 2007 Dec 20.
During the past three decades, the social/natural environment and lifestyle of people in China have undergone a marked transformation to westernization. However, age-standardized cancer rates have not been determined to any great extent in China. In this study, we tracked the cancer incidence between 1981 and 2000 in Tianjin, to identify the changes in incidence associated with social and economic changes. Cancer incidence data were collected by the Tianjin Cancer Registry. Sex, age, and organ site-specific incidence trends were analyzed by the "join-point regression" method. Overall crude cancer incidence increased, but the age-standardized incidence slightly decreased during the study period. The incidence of lung cancer increased between 1981 and 1996 but decreased between 1996 and 2000. The incidences of uterine, esophageal, stomach, and liver cancers decreased. However, the incidences of colorectal, pancreatic, breast, ovarian, and prostate cancers all increased during the study period. There was an aging-related increase in the overall crude cancer incidence and an alteration in the distribution of cancer types in Tianjin. The incidences of cancer types that are more prevalent in developed countries appeared to increase in China, whereas the incidences of cancer types that are more prevalent in developing countries appeared to decline.
在过去三十年中，中国人群的社会/自然环境及生活方式已显著西化。然而，中国在很大程度上尚未确定年龄标准化癌症发病率。在本研究中，我们追踪了1981年至2000年天津的癌症发病率，以确定与社会经济变化相关的发病率变化。癌症发病率数据由天津癌症登记处收集。采用“连接点回归”方法分析性别、年龄及器官部位特异性发病率趋势。研究期间，总体粗癌症发病率上升，但年龄标准化发病率略有下降。1981年至1996年肺癌发病率上升，1996年至2000年下降。子宫癌、食管癌、胃癌和肝癌发病率下降。然而，研究期间结直肠癌、胰腺癌、乳腺癌、卵巢癌和前列腺癌的发病率均上升。天津总体粗癌症发病率出现与老龄化相关的上升，且癌症类型分布发生改变。在发达国家更常见的癌症类型在中国的发病率似乎上升，而在发展中国家更常见的癌症类型发病率似乎下降。
