Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100069, China.
Department of Chronic Disease Management, Xi'an Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Xi'an, 710054, China.
J Cancer Res Clin Oncol. 2022 Oct;148(10):2781-2792. doi: 10.1007/s00432-022-04046-6. Epub 2022 May 14.
Describe and predict the malignant tumor deaths in Xi'an so as to provide evidence for the government to formulate the prevention and treatment plans.
Overall malignant tumor death in Xi'an in the past 16 years was described. The multi-decrease life table was used to calculate cumulative mortality risk by cause and life expectancy reduction years by cause of malignant tumors in 2020. The join point regression models were used to analyze the change trend of standard mortality of malignant tumors in Xi'an from 2005 to 2020. The appropriate gray models were selected to predict the death of malignant tumors in Xi'an in the next decade.
The mortality of total malignant tumors in Xi'an showed that men are higher than women and the elderly are higher than other groups. As for 2020, lung cancer had the highest risk of death for both men and women, while leukemia had the highest life expectancy reduction years by cause. From 2005 to 2020, standardized mortality of majority malignant tumors showed downward trends, which were particularly obvious in recent years. The prediction results of several major malignant tumors showed that in the next decade, the mortality of most malignant tumors had downward trends, but combined with the increase of population in the future, the number of malignant tumor deaths in Xi'an will continue to increase.
Malignant tumors in Xi'an have decreasing mortality trends in recent years, and effective measures to prevent and treat tumors should be strengthened in the future.
描述和预测西安市恶性肿瘤死亡情况，为政府制定防治规划提供依据。
描述西安市过去 16 年恶性肿瘤总体死亡情况，应用减寿率法计算 2020 年西安市恶性肿瘤死因别累积死亡率和早死所致寿命损失年数，采用 Joinpoint 回归模型分析 2005—2020 年西安市恶性肿瘤标化死亡率的变化趋势，选择合适的灰色模型对西安市未来 10 年恶性肿瘤死亡情况进行预测。
西安市恶性肿瘤死亡率呈现男性高于女性、随年龄增长而升高的特征。2020 年西安市恶性肿瘤死因别死亡风险男性以肺癌最高，女性以肺癌最高，导致寿命损失年数最多的癌种均为白血病。2005—2020 年西安市多数恶性肿瘤标化死亡率呈下降趋势，近年来下降尤为明显。对几种主要恶性肿瘤的预测结果显示，未来 10 年多数恶性肿瘤死亡率呈下降趋势，但结合未来人口增长，西安市恶性肿瘤死亡人数仍将持续增加。
近年来西安市恶性肿瘤死亡率呈下降趋势，未来应加强肿瘤防治有效措施。
