Aarnisalo Kaarina, Vihavainen Elina, Rantala Leila, Maijala Riitta, Suihko Maija-Liisa, Hielm Sebastian, Tuominen Pirkko, Ranta Jukka, Raaska Laura
Technical Research Centre VTT, P.O. Box 1000, FIN-02044, VTT, Espoo, Finland.
Int J Food Microbiol. 2008 Feb 10;121(3):275-84. doi: 10.1016/j.ijfoodmicro.2007.11.037. Epub 2007 Nov 17.
Microbial risk assessment provides a means of estimating consumer risks associated with food products. The methods can also be applied at the plant level. In this study results of microbiological analyses were used to develop a robust single plant level risk assessment. Furthermore, the prevalence and numbers of Listeria monocytogenes in marinated broiler legs in Finland were estimated. These estimates were based on information on the prevalence, numbers and genotypes of L. monocytogenes in 186 marinated broiler legs from 41 retail stores. The products were from three main Finnish producers, which produce 90% of all marinated broiler legs sold in Finland. The prevalence and numbers of L. monocytogenes were estimated by Monte Carlo simulation using WinBUGS, but the model is applicable to any software featuring standard probability distributions. The estimated mean annual number of L. monocytogenes-positive broiler legs sold in Finland was 7.2x10(6) with a 95% credible interval (CI) 6.7x10(6)-7.7x10(6). That would be 34%+/-1% of the marinated broiler legs sold in Finland. The mean number of L. monocytogenes in marinated broiler legs estimated at the sell-by-date was 2 CFU/g, with a 95% CI of 0-14 CFU/g. Producer-specific L. monocytogenes strains were recovered from the products throughout the year, which emphasizes the importance of characterizing the isolates and identifying strains that may cause problems as part of risk assessment studies. As the levels of L. monocytogenes were low, the risk of acquiring listeriosis from these products proved to be insignificant. Consequently there was no need for a thorough national level risk assessment. However, an approach using worst-case and average point estimates was applied to produce an example of single producer level risk assessment based on limited data. This assessment also indicated that the risk from these products was low. The risk-based approach presented in this work can provide estimation of public health risk on which control measures at the plant level can be based.
微生物风险评估提供了一种估算与食品相关的消费者风险的方法。这些方法也可应用于工厂层面。在本研究中，微生物分析结果被用于开展一项稳健的单一工厂层面风险评估。此外，还估算了芬兰腌制肉鸡腿中单核细胞增生李斯特菌的流行率和数量。这些估算基于来自41家零售店的186个腌制肉鸡腿中单核细胞增生李斯特菌的流行率、数量和基因型信息。这些产品来自芬兰三大主要生产商，它们生产了芬兰销售的所有腌制肉鸡腿的90%。单核细胞增生李斯特菌的流行率和数量通过使用WinBUGS的蒙特卡洛模拟进行估算，但该模型适用于任何具有标准概率分布的软件。据估计，芬兰每年销售的单核细胞增生李斯特菌呈阳性的肉鸡腿平均数量为7.2×10⁶，95%可信区间（CI）为6.7×10⁶ - 7.7×10⁶。这将占芬兰销售的腌制肉鸡腿的34%±1%。在销售截止日期时，腌制肉鸡腿中单核细胞增生李斯特菌的平均数量估计为2 CFU/g，95% CI为0 - 14 CFU/g。全年从产品中分离出了特定生产商的单核细胞增生李斯特菌菌株，这强调了在风险评估研究中对分离株进行特征描述和识别可能引发问题的菌株的重要性。由于单核细胞增生李斯特菌的水平较低，从这些产品中感染李斯特菌病的风险被证明微不足道。因此，无需进行全面的国家层面风险评估。然而，采用了一种基于最坏情况和平均点估计的方法，以基于有限数据给出单一生产商层面风险评估的示例。该评估也表明这些产品的风险较低。本研究中提出的基于风险的方法可提供公共卫生风险估计，工厂层面的控制措施可基于此。
