Snowden David J, Boone Mary E
Cognitive Edge, Lockeridge, England.
Harv Bus Rev. 2007 Nov;85(11):68-76, 149.
Many executives are surprised when previously successful leadership approaches fail in new situations, but different contexts call for different kinds of responses. Before addressing a situation, leaders need to recognize which context governs it -and tailor their actions accordingly. Snowden and Boone have formed a new perspective on leadership and decision making that's based on complexity science. The result is the Cynefin framework, which helps executives sort issues into five contexts: Simple contexts are characterized by stability and cause-and-effect relationships that are clear to everyone. Often, the right answer is self-evident. In this realm of "known knowns," leaders must first assess the facts of a situation -that is, "sense" it -then categorize and respond to it. Complicated contexts may contain multiple right answers, and though there is a clear relationship between cause and effect, not everyone can see it. This is the realm of "known unknowns." Here, leaders must sense, analyze, and respond. In a complex context, right answers can't be ferreted out at all; rather, instructive patterns emerge if the leader conducts experiments that can safely fail. This is the realm of "unknown unknowns," where much of contemporary business operates. Leaders in this context need to probe first, then sense, and then respond. In a chaotic context, searching for right answers is pointless. The relationships between cause and effect are impossible to determine because they shift constantly and no manageable patterns exist. This is the realm of unknowables (the events of September 11, 2001, fall into this category). In this domain, a leader must first act to establish order, sense where stability is present, and then work to transform the situation from chaos to complexity. The fifth context, disorder, applies when it is unclear which of the other four contexts is predominant. The way out is to break the situation into its constituent parts and assign each to one of the other four realms. Leaders can then make decisions and intervene in contextually appropriate ways.
许多高管会感到惊讶，当以前成功的领导方法在新情况下失效时，但不同的环境需要不同类型的应对措施。在处理一种情况之前，领导者需要认识到是哪种环境在起作用，并据此调整他们的行动。斯诺登和布恩基于复杂性科学形成了一种关于领导力和决策的新观点。其成果就是辛菲尔德框架，该框架帮助高管们将问题分为五种环境：简单环境的特点是稳定性以及对每个人来说都清晰明了的因果关系。通常，正确答案是不言而喻的。在这个“已知的已知”领域，领导者必须首先评估一种情况的事实，即“感知”它，然后对其进行分类并做出回应。复杂环境可能包含多个正确答案，并且尽管因果之间存在明确的关系，但并非每个人都能看到。这是“已知的未知”领域。在这里，领导者必须感知、分析并做出回应。在复杂环境中，根本无法找出正确答案；相反，如果领导者进行那些可以安全失败的试验，就会出现具有启发性的模式。这是“未知的未知”领域，当代商业的许多活动都发生在这个领域。处于这种环境中的领导者需要先探索，然后感知，再做出回应。在混乱环境中，寻找正确答案毫无意义。因果关系无法确定，因为它们不断变化且不存在可管理的模式。这是不可知领域（2001年9月11日的事件就属于这一类）。在这个领域，领导者必须首先采取行动建立秩序，感知哪里存在稳定性，然后努力将局面从混乱转变为复杂。第五种环境，无序，适用于不清楚其他四种环境中哪一种占主导地位的情况。解决办法是将局面分解为其组成部分，并将每个部分分配到其他四个领域中的一个。然后领导者可以做出决策，并以适合具体环境的方式进行干预。
