Sillanpää M, Camfield P R, Camfield C S, Aromaa M, Helenius H, Rautava P, Hauser W A
Department of Child Neurology, University of Turku, Turku, Finland.
Dev Med Child Neurol. 2008 Jan;50(1):25-8. doi: 10.1111/j.1469-8749.2007.02006.x.
This study compared the incidence of febrile seizures (FS) reported prospectively up to 5 years of age, with the prevalence of FS by parental recall in the same cohort using the same questionnaire at 12 years of age. Both prospective and retrospective data were available for 807 children (389 males, 418 females). The number of children reported to have experienced FS in the prospective study was 57, and in the retrospective study was 45, yielding a cumulative incidence of 7.1 and 5.6% respectively. In the retrospective study there was an under-reporting of 19 children, over-reporting of eight children, and one child misreported by age at onset. Overall sensitivity of the retrospective approach was 65% and specificity was 99%. Positive predictive value was 82% and negative predictive value was 97%. Retrospective data underestimate the frequency of FS with high specificity but low sensitivity. Recall data suggest that some children with FS were not reported in the prospective data. These biases should be considered when evaluating the value of FS as a predictor of future health effects.
本研究比较了前瞻性报告的5岁以下热性惊厥（FS）发病率，与同一队列中12岁时通过父母回忆使用相同问卷得出的FS患病率。807名儿童（389名男性，418名女性）同时有前瞻性和回顾性数据。前瞻性研究中报告经历过FS的儿童数量为57名，回顾性研究中为45名，累积发病率分别为7.1%和5.6%。回顾性研究中有19名儿童漏报，8名儿童错报，1名儿童起病年龄错报。回顾性方法的总体敏感性为65%，特异性为99%。阳性预测值为82%，阴性预测值为97%。回顾性数据以高特异性但低敏感性低估了FS的频率。回忆数据表明，前瞻性数据中未报告一些患有FS的儿童。在评估FS作为未来健康影响预测指标的价值时，应考虑这些偏差。
